University of North Texas Athletics
Green Gang: No Foolin' Around
7/20/2009 12:00:00 AM | Return to Play
By Steven Bartolotta, July 20, 2009, 3:49 p.m.
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.” Abraham Lincoln
Anyone who knows me knows I love history and this is my all-time favorite quote from our 16th president. So with that I caution you into being fooled by preseason polls, they are often time not an accurate barometer of where the season ends up.
While this is nothing more than hot stove talk over the long summer it is interesting to note the accuracy of the preseason coaches/media polls throughout the years in the Sun Belt Conference. Since some seem to think coaches and media are pretty accurate, I thought I’d put it to the test.
The results aren’t pretty. Of the eight year’s of polling the coaches and media have been right 32.1 percent of the time (18-56).
If this was baseball and we were talking batting average I’d say these numbers are pretty good. But unfortunately not and it just further illustrates the preseason polls should be taken as nothing more than a reflection upon what you did last year.
Those are the facts. Which in the Mean Green’s case, wasn’t good.
Nobody knows where this season is going to end up but if all you have to go off of previous year’s results than it’s pretty easy to pick. To be fair, the coaches and media have gotten North Texas right four out of the eight years.
2001 Preseason Poll 2001 Actual Standings
Middle Tennessee North Texas*
Idaho Middle Tennessee*
New Mexico State New Mexico State
North Texas Louisiana-Lafayette
Arkansas State ULM
Louisiana-Lafayette Arkansas State
ULM Idaho
2 for 7- 28.6 percent right.
2002 Preseason Poll 2002 Actual Standings
North Texas North Texas
Middle Tennessee New Mexico State
New Mexico State Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette Middle Tennessee
Idaho ULM
Arkansas State Louisiana-Lafayette
ULM Idaho
1 for 7- 14.3 percent right
2003 Preseason Poll 2003 Actual Standings
North Texas North Texas
New Mexico State Louisiana-Lafayette
Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette Utah State
Utah State Idaho
Idaho New Mexico State
ULM ULM
4 for 8 - 50.0 percent right.
2004 Preseason Poll 2004 Actual Standings
North Texas North Texas
Troy Troy
New Mexico State New Mexico State
Louisiana-Lafayette ULM
Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee
Utah State Arkansas State
Arkansas State Louisiana-Lafayette
ULM Utah State
Idaho Idaho
5 for 9- 55.6 percent right
2005 Preseason Poll 2005 Actual Standings
North Texas Arkansas State*
Troy Louisiana-Lafayette*
Middle Tennessee ULM*
Louisiana-Lafayette FIU
ULM Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State Troy
Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic
FIU North Texas
*tri-champions
1 for 8- 12.5 percent right
2006 Preseason Poll 2006 Actual Standings
Louisiana-Lafayette Troy*
Arkansas State Middle Tennessee*
Troy Arkansas State
North Texas Florida Atlantic
ULM Louisiana-Lafayette
Middle Tennessee ULM
Florida Atlantic North Texas
FIU FIU
*-co champions
1 for 8 – 12.5 percent right
2007 Preseason Poll 2007 Actual Standings
Troy Florida Atlantic*
Middle Tennessee Troy*
Arkansas State ULM
Louisiana-Lafayette Middle Tennessee
ULM Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas North Texas
FIU FIU
*co-champions
2 for 8 – 25.0 percent right
2008 Preseason Poll 2008 Actual Standings
Florida Atlantic Troy
Troy Louisiana-Lafayette
ULM Florida Atlantic
Arkansas State Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee
Louisiana-Lafayette FIU
North Texas ULM
FIU North Texas
2 for 8 – 25.0 percent right
